Energy Scenarios Ireland first appeared in 2006 as part of a report commissioned by the Environmental Protection Agency in Ireland to Explore the impact on Ireland of changing energy prices. At the time the project kicked of in 2005, the view held by the Irish Government, it's advisors and most of the population who had heard the term Peak Oil, was that peak was not likely to occur until 2025. While the ESI team felt this was very optimistic, we felt the need to include a Business As Usual scenario by the miraculous discovery of new large oil fields. The consensus is now that peak oil has occurred or will do so within the next 2 years and the peak is more likely to be a plateau. It is also being recognised that the energy cost of extracting the remaining half of the worlds reserves is going to be much higher than the first and therefore the slope on the declining side of the curve is likely to be much steeper the growing side.
We felt there was still much value to be had from the scenarios but that they would require revising, so we are kicking of this process here in this blog. We intend to produce Energy Scenario Ireland 2.0 (ESI2) by the end of the year and hope that by developing this in this format, we will get comment and involvement from a wide audience. Our primary objective is to stimulate better discussion and better decision making in Ireland (and elsewhere) by exploring the future ahead, which we feel will be significantly different from Business As Usual.
The resulting material will alway be freely available under a Creative Commons license